Greece Agribusiness Report Q4 2017
We continue to hold the view that cheese production will see buoyant, albeit slightly more muted, growth in the coming years due to strong export opportunities and as a result we have revised our forecasts upwards accordingly for 2017 following a revision of output data for 2016. In addition, we see sugar remaining on a declining trend as competition is set to increase in the EU as cheaper sugar becomes available from elsewhere in the region starting in 2017. We continue to see poultry consumption outperforming the livestock sector in terms of both production and consumption due to its lower cost, providing a modest push to corn production towards the end of our newly extended forecast period to 2020/21.We expect poultry consumption to close the gap on, and eventually overtake, beef production across the course of our forecast period, with the shift in the rankings taking place in 2021. As the Greek economy finds relative stability going forward, our forecasts across the agricultural sector remain largely unchanged from our last quarterly update, except for a upgrade in cheese productionand a downgrade in milk production. Poultry consumption from 2017 to 2021: up by an average of 3.3% y-o-y to 215,050 tonnes. The cheaper price of poultry meat means it will still gain ground against beef and pork. By the end of our forecast period, we now see poultry overtaking beef, but not pork, in demand, with the shift in the hierarchy forecasted to take place in 2021. Over the course of our forecast period, we expect poultry consumption to close the gap with production; however, we do not expect it to exceed it before the end of our forecast period in 2021.
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