BMI View: Zinc prices will continue to improve, as the global refined market tightens over the comingyears. We forecast zinc prices to average USD2,700/tonne in 2017 and increase to USD2,900/tonne by2021.
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
We forecast zinc prices to average USD2,700/tonne in 2017, however highlight key risks to both theupside and downside over the coming months. Beyond 2017, we expect prices to gradually trend highersupported by a global market deficit.
Global refined zinc production will see limited growth as the mine shortage squeezes margins forsmelters, resulting in curbed output. Over the longer term, as new projects come online and prices remainelevated, zinc smelters will gradually ramp up output again. We forecast global refined zinc production toedge higher, from 14.0 million tonnes (mnt) in 2017 to 15.0mnt by 2021, averaging 1.9% annual growth.