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Global Steel Metals Report Q4 2017

Global Steel Metals Report Q4 2017

BMI View: We are revising up our steel price forecast for 2017 from USD530/tonne to USD585/tonne andfrom USD500/tonne to USD540/tonne for 2018. This is due to resilient Chinese demand growth from longterminfrastructure and construction projects initiated during H216-Q117. Prices will start to ease towardsthe end of 2017 as infrastructure and construction project pipelines in China start thinning with thegovernment's renewed focus on shifting economic growth away from heavy industry towards services afterthe 19th National Party Congress.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast

We forecast steel prices to remain elevated, trading between USD580-630/tonne, until the 19th NationalParty Congress in China at least before starting to ease from December 2017. The main driver of thismore positive view on steel prices than we previously held is a less negative near-term outlook on China'seconomic growth. While we still expect real GDP growth in the country to slow from the robust 6.9% yo-y expansion in H117, this downturn will take longer than we anticipated several months ago. The spikein infrastructure projects initiated over Q116-Q117 has continued to boost demand for building materialsin subsequent months. We expect it will be late-2017 or early 2018 before a thinner project pipeline startsto drag significantly on steel prices.


Industry View
BMI View
Table: Steel Price Forecast
Price Forecast
Global - Steel: Prices To Remain High In 2017 Before Easing In 2018
Table: Steel Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Table: Global Steel Forecast
Global Trends In Supply, Demand & Trade
Steel: Shrinking Surplus Before Market Deficit In 2020
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2015-2021)
Supply: China To Remain Key Producer
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts, '000 tonnes (2015-2021)
Demand: Weak Growth, Though Bright Spots Remain
Table: Select Countries - Steel Consumption Forecast (2015-2021)
Mine Supply: Iron Ore
Global - Iron Ore: Growth At A Standstill
Table: Select Countries - Major New Iron Ore Projects
Competitive Landscape
Table: Crude Steel Production Market Share By Country/Region (%), 2015
Table: Largest Listed Steel Producers By Market Capitalisation
Company Profile
Tata Steel Ltd
Table: Steel Price Forecast
Company Strategy
Table: Tata Steel - Key Financial Data
POSCO
Table: POSCO - Key Financial Data
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
Table: SAIL - Supply Chain Analysis
Table: SAIL - Key Financial Data
Emirates Steel
China Steel Corporation
Table: China Steel Corporation - Financial Results
Hesteel Group (Hebei Iron Ore and Steel)
Table: Hesteel - Key Financial Data
ArcelorMittal
Company Strategy
Company Strategy
Financial Data
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
China Steel Corporation
Table: China Steel Corporation - Financial Results
Appendix
Steel: Production Balance
Table: Global - Steel Forecasts (2014-2021)
Production Forecast
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts (2015-2021)
Consumption Forecast
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Consumption Forecast (2015-2021)
Methodology
Cross Checks

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