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Global Iron Ore Metals Report Q4 2017

Global Iron Ore Metals Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

We have increased our iron ore price forecast to an average of USD70/tonne in 2017 comparedto USD65/tonne previously as Chinese imports of the ore remain strong due to steady steel production.Long-term infrastructure projects initiated during H216-Q117 will ensure prices of iron ore remainelevated in Q317, with cooling of demand and hence prices to kick in after the 19th National PartyCongress in Q417 that will refocus growth away from heavy industries to services.

Price Forecast:

We have revised upwards our iron ore forecast to an average of USD70/tonne in 2017 from our previousforecast of USD65/tonne, but maintain our downbeat iron ore forecasts for 2018-2021. China's steeldemand will be supported over the remainder of 2017 by the long-term infrastructure projects initiated in2016 and Q117. The country's real GDP grew by 6.9% y-o-y in H117, and our Country Risk team hasupgraded our 2017 and 2018 real GDP forecasts to 6.6% and 6.3% from 6.3% and 5.8%, respectively(see our Country Risk analysis 'Economy To Lose Steam Despite Strong H117 Figure', July 17). In otherwords, growth will still slow over the coming quarters, and the waning of domestic steel demand in 2018will eventually lead to an oversupply of steel on the global market, pushing prices downwards.


BMI Industry View
BMI View
Table: Global - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
Price Forecast
Global - Iron Ore: Upward Revision On Strong Chinese Imports
Table: BMI Iron Ore Price Forecast
Table: Iron Ore Price Forecasts (2014-2021)
Global Trends In Supply, Demand & Trade
Iron Ore: Market To Remain Well Supplied
Table: Global - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Consumption Forecasts
Mine Supply: Iron Ore
Global - Iron Ore: Growth At A Standstill
Table: Select Countries - Major New Iron Ore Projects
Competitive Landscape
Major Players To Increase Market Share
Table: Largest Listed Iron Ore Producers By Market Capitalisation
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Anglo American
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Anglo American - Key Projects
Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - BHP Billiton
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Latest Results
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Rio Tinto
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Analysis
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
Fortescue Metals - Q4 2017
Table: Fortescue Metals Group - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Vale
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Table: Selected Iron Ore Producers - Key Financial Data
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Appendix
Table: Global - Iron Ore Production Forecasts
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Production Forecasts (2015-2021)
Table: Select Countries - Crude Steel Consumption Forecasts
Methodology
Cross Checks

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