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Global Aluminium Metals Report Q4 2017

BMI view: We have increased our aluminium price forecast in 2017 to USD1,850/tonne from USD1,750/tonne as stronger-than-expected Chinese demand growth pushes the global market into a deficit by 2018.

Latest Developments And Structural Trends

Price Forecast


We have raised our 2017 aluminium price forecast to USD1,850/tonne from a previous forecast ofUSD1,750/tonne following strong Chinese economic and thus demand growth over the first half of theyear. Additionally, aluminium prices will continue to be supported by the Chinese government's plans tocurb capacity towards the end of the year. Although we expect the cuts to target capacity rather thanoutput, thus limiting the impact on fundamentals, the plan will keep investor sentiment buoyed. Ourrevised forecast implies a more neutral near-term outlook for aluminium, trading betweenUSD1,800-1,900/tonne.

Key upside risks to our aluminium price outlook include continued Chinese demand strength over theremainder of the year and a full implementation of supply cuts in China starting at the end of 2017.


BMI Industry View
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Price Forecast
Global - Aluminium: Turning Neutral, With Risks To The Upside
Table: BMI Aluminium Forecasts
Table: Global Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Global Trends In Supply, Demand And Trade
Global - Aluminium: Chinese Production Slowdown, Steady Demand To Drive Market Tightening
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Supply: Slowing Chinese Production Growth To Rein In Oversupply
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts
Demand: Steady Growth Ahead
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts
Trade: US Protectionism To Complicate Aluminium Imports
Mine Supply: Bauxite
Global - Bauxite: New Projects, Low-Cost Production In Asia To Drive Strong Growth
Table: Select Countries - Bauxite Production Forecasts
Table: Global Key Bauxite Projects
Competitive Landscape
Table: Largest Listed Aluminium Producers - Key Financial & Operational Data
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Alcoa - Q4 2017
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Background
Company Strategy
Table: Alcoa - Financial Data
Table: Aluminium Producers - Key Financial & Operational Data
Global Company Strategy - RUSAL - Q4 2017
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: UC RUSAL - Key Projects
Table: UC RUSAL - Key Financial Data
Table: Aluminium Producers - Key Operational & Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q4 2017
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data
Table: Aluminium Producers - Key Operational & Financial Data
Aluminium Bahrain - Q4 2017
Table: Alba - Financial Data
Emirates Global Aluminium - Q4 2017
Data Appendix
Appendix
Table: Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
Table: Primary Aluminium Production Forecasts
Table: Primary Aluminium Consumption Forecasts
Methodology
Cross Checks

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