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Ghana Power Report Q4 2017

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Ghana 2016-2022)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Ghana Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ghana 2016-2021)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ghana 2021-2026)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Ghana Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2021-2026)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2020)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2021-2026)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2021-2026)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2020)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2021-2026)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2020)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ghana 2020-2026)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - SSA Power: Political And Economic Risks Overshadow Potential Rewards
Ghana Power Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
SSA Key Policies And Market Structure
Competitive Landscape
SSA Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Power Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Indicators - Explanation and Sources

BMI View: Thermal power and non-hydropower renewables investment will be the focus of the Ghanaiangovernment's investment as it tries to diversify its power sector away from hydropower reliance over our10-year forecast period. Plans to hold competitive auctions pose further upside risks to renewable capacityas projects will be more financially sustainable. Efforts to conserve water levels will leave hydropowergeneration subdued, with deficits partially met through imports from neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

We are maintaining our outlook for thermal power output in Ghana over our 10-year forecast period. Weexpect that thermal power generation will grow at an annual average rate of 5% from 2017 until 2026,increasing from 5 terawatt hours (TWh) to 7.5TWh. However, we note that the increasing debt levels ofGhanaian utilities owed for the use of gas for thermal power generation poses a downside risk to futurethermal power output. The Volta River Authority (VRA) is reported to owe the Ghana National GasCompany up to USD534.2mn, which the VRA states is due to it not being paid for electricity supplied toECG.


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