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Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook on Ghana's oil and gas production in the medium term, as theflagship Jubilee field ramps up output and TEN and Sankofa are brought on stream. However, the country'slong-term prospects grow increasingly crowded due to the ongoing maritime boundary dispute with Côted'Ivoire and continued fiscal and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration activity has been highly constrained,exacerbated by the sharp fall in global oil prices. The downstream sector will continue to perform poorly,due to ageing and inefficient infrastructure and a lack of investment in new capacity.

The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:

Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore. Although our reserves forecasts remainmodest, we acknowledge strong upside risk from continued exploration.

Exploration may be constrained over the next three to four years, as a maritime boundary dispute withCôte d'Ivoire and delays passing the new petroleum law weigh on activity.

Due to the moratorium on gas flaring, associated gas production at Jubilee has acted as a majorbottleneck on oil output. However, with Atuabo brought online in the fourth quarter of 2014, followingstrong oil and gas production growth from 2015, we forecast continued growth in 2016.

Rising demand in the domestic power sector will drive robust gas consumption growth - substantial LNGimports will be needed to meet this demand, given limited scope for pipeline import growth.

Fuels consumption growth will be more moderate, dragged down by domestic fuels price liberalisation,FX weakness and falling demand for oil-fired power generation.

The outlook on Ghana's downstream is bearish, due to poor operational efficiencies at the Tema OilRefinery and the weak commercial viability of proposed upgrade and expansion projects.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013
Upstream Projects
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Crude Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Ghana Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Overview
Licensing Regime
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
Fiscal Regime
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms
Licensing Rounds
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Ghana Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Trade Facilities
Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Profile
Kosmos Energy
Tullow Oil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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