Ghana, Kenya & Nigeria Information Technology Report Q1 2016
BMI View: IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all experienced a sharp downturn in 2014 and 2015 as a result of the downturn in commodity and oil markets, and general increase in negative sentiment towards emerging markets.
This served as a reality check on optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets as a lack of structural and institutional was laid bare.
This resulted in a significant reassessment of both historical data and our growth forecast for all three IT markets in the Q116 update, with all three markets receiving significant downgrades and classified as long-term rather than medium term opportunities for vendors.
The outlook is however by no means uniform, with Nigeria expected to underperform due to a reliance on oil exports that will be a drag throughout the forecast period.
In contrast Kenya has a more diversified base of economic activity as well as a stronger policy environment that we believe positions it to be the long-term outperformer in terms of IT market and sector development.
Latest Updates And Developments
Ghana Total IT Market Sales: GHS714mn in 2016 to GHS1.1bn in 2019, a CAGR of +16.8% in local currency terms.
Ghana is the poorest of the three markets in this report, and has the smallest IT market, but vendors should be able to capitalise on stronger economic performance in the later years of our forecast.
Kenya Total IT Market Sales: KES64.1bn in 2016 to KES95.3bn in 2019, a CAGR of +12.4% in local currency terms.
Kenya is the most developed IT market and has the brightest medium and long term outlook due to lower level of exposure to commodities market and greater modernisation momentum that should result in broader based economic growth.
Nigeria Total IT Market Sales: NGN253.6bn in 2016 to NGN381.0n in 2019, a CAGR of +11.9% in local currency terms.
Weakest growth outlook in US dollar terms as oil price slump forecast to remain a drag on domestic purchasing power over the medium term, while enterprise market also has depressed outlook.
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