Ghana Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Ghana's construction industry will begin a steady recovery following a contraction over 2015, as the worst of the country's macroeconomic headwinds weighing on growth since 2014 is over. The government has made significant strides in tackling twin deficits, high inflation and a severe power shortage and as such we expect investment in projects to begin to improve.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We maintain our forecast of 2.1% real growth in 2016 and average annual growth of 5.3% over the next five years and 6.2% over our full ten-year forecast period up to 2025. We estimate the industry contracted 2% in 2015 as macroeconomic and operational headwinds weighed heavily on growth.
In line with the International Monetary Fund's Emergency Credit Facility programme, the government is reining in recurrent spending. This is positive for the construction industry - while the government is largely responsible for infrastructure financing, much of its expenditure has typically been focused on public sector wages.
Efforts are underway to address the power deficit and the subsequent supply chain disruptions, with an overall improvement in electricity generation expected between 2016 and 2017. Harnessing renewable energy is critical to plug the gap in the short term, but gas-fired capacity will remain the core focus of energy infrastructure development.
Investment into upgrading port and airport infrastructure, as Ghana works to position itself as the gateway to West Africa, underpins our positive forecasts. Expansion and upgrades are in the pipeline for the Tema and Takoradi ports, as well as the country's various airports.
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