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Germany Retail Report Q3 2015

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Germany Retail Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Overall, we expect the German retail market to see steady growth in 2015, as householdspending continues to rise on the back of improving consumer confidence and lower oil prices (freeing upadditional funds for non-essential purchases). However, medium-term growth remains constrained by thelargely manufacturing-based economy which necessitates the maintenance of lower wages in order toensure an attractive labour market for manufacturers. This hampers the country's potential for retailers, ascomparatively low wages for a developed state encourage price-conscious consumers to save, and reducesoutlays on big-ticket, big-brand luxury items. In light of this, we see continued opportunities for discountand low-budget retail chains, in particular.

We have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Germany for 2015-2016, with a decline in oil prices,the launch of the European Central Bank (ECB)'s quantitative easing programme and a weaker euro alllikely to support economic activity. We now project 1.5% real GDP growth in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016, upfrom our previous projections of 1.3% in each of those years.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink and Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Clothing and Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (Germany 2012-2019)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (Germany 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Germany 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Germany 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
GDP By Expenditure
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Germany 2012-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Developed States Risk/Reward Index
Table: Developed States - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Online Retailers
Department Store Retailers
Pharmacies and Personal Care
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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