Germany Renewables Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We maintain a robust forecast for the German renewables sector this quarter, in large part dueto a continued strong outlook for the country's wind power sector - as project developers will aim to lock insubsidies prior to the introduction of competitive auctions in 2017. The introduction of reverse capacityauctions will stabilise capacity additions post-2018 at a lower rate than observed over the last decade, asthe government will curb rising subsidy costs and prevent unsustainable growth in the renewables sector.
Given the mature state of the market and high renewables penetration in the power mix, Germany willremain the European bellwether for renewable energy.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Germany's offshore wind sector registered 2,3GW of capacity additions connected to the grid over 2015,four times what was added in the UK over the year. The growth spike was a result of a backlog ofdelayed offshore wind projects coming online over the year, taking cumulative offshore installations inthe country to 3.2GW. We expect this deployment rate to fall, as the offshore wind capacity target set at6.5GW leading up to 2020 (cut from an initial 10GW) is too low to support growth at 2015 levels overthe next five years.
German chancellor Angela Merkel pushed for a greater commitment for decarbonisation at the 2015 G7summit in June. In the final document, all members, including the US and Japan, affirmed their support todecrease global emissions by 40-70% by 2050. The German government already announced in May 2015that, based on 2014 levels, it would double its contribution to international climate finance by 2020.
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