Germany Consumer & Retail Q4 2018
Despite continued improvements in the labour market, low inflation and manageable levels of household debt, Germanconsumers are not spending at the levels that would normally be expected of this in positive economic environment. Even highconsumer confidence over the back half of 2017 and into 2018 has largely failed to translate into higher retail sales. Wage growthhas been sluggish but there is still an ingrained view among households to save, which is one of the key factors holding back ourconsumption forecasts. We are optimistic on the German economy in 2017-18, as reflected by our above-consensus real GDPgrowth projections but anticipate potential instability in the political realm, driving additional caution from consumers over thecoming year.
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