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Georgia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Georgia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Georgian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on account of a number of large infrastructure investment projects in the pipeline.

Free trade agreements with both the EU and China, as well as Georgia's favourable business environment (the country ranks ninth out of 190 countries in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index), will support the investment outlook.

Georgia's current account deficit will remain wide over the coming years, but risks to financial stability are mitigated by the large share of financing coming from foreign direct investment.

Fiscal consolidation and accelerating economic activity will support a gradual improvement in Georgia's macroeconomic profile.

Key Risks

Georgia's current account deficit is among the widest in Europe and will remain a risk for the stability of the economy.

Renewed conflict between Russia and Georgia remains a crucial tail risk, given Georgia's continued attempts at forging closer relations with the EU and the US.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Revising Up Georgia's Growth Amid Solid Momentum
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Maintaining Georgia's Short-Term Political Risk Score Despite New PM
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition
Georgia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsGlobal Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: GEORGIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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