Georgia Country Risk Report Q2 2020
The outlook for the Georgian economy remains bright over the next few years, with growth to remain strong.
Real GDP growth looks set to outperform regional peers, due to strong domestic demand, steady inflows of foreign investment and a buoyant tourism sector.
At Fitch Solutions, we have revised down our real GDP growth estimate to 4.4% in 2020, from 4.7% previously.
Anti-government protests and potential social unrest will likely continue through to the run-up to the next general election, due in October 2020.
The resignation of Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze in late 2019 reflects growing pressure on Georgia's ruling 'Georgian Dream' coalition.
His successor, former interior minister Giorgi Gakharia, will struggle to bolster the flagging popularity of the ruling coalition.
Georgia's current account deficit is among the widest in Europe and will remain a risk for the stability of the economy.
A renewed conflict between Russia and Georgia remains a crucial tail risk, given Georgia's continued attempts at forging closer relations with the EU and the US.
Declining growth in Russia, or even an unexpected downturn, could result in Russian foreign policy becoming more assertive towards Georgia, as has been the case with Ukraine during prior economic crises.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Georgian Growth To Maintain A Robust Pace In 2020
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- 10-Year Forecast
- The Georgian Economy to 2029
- Georgia's Long-Term Growth To Benefit From Continued Reforms And Diversification
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Tensions In Georgia To Rise Ahead Of October 2020 Election
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition
- THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Georgia Country Risk Q2 2020ContentsOperational Risk
- TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
- Conflict Risk
- TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
- TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
- TABLE: MAJOR INTERSTATE CONFLICT FLASHOINTS
- TABLE: MILITARY PROFILE AND DEFENCE AGREEMENTS
- TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
- Transport Network
- TABLE: ROAD RISKS
- TABLE: RAIL RISKS
- TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
- TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
- Global Macro Outlook
- Growth Stabilising, With EMs Set To Accelerate In 2020
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: GEORGIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS