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Georgia Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Georgia Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

Georgian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on account of a number of large infrastructure investment projects in the pipeline.
Free trade agreements with both the EU and China, as well as Geor- gia's favourable business environment (the country ranks ninth out of 190 in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index), will support the investment outlook.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Strong Economic Growth Momentum To Continue In 2018
The Georgian economy is showing visible signs of a recovery in 2017, and this positive momentum is likely to follow through into
2018. We are revising up our 2017 and 2018 real GDP growth forecasts to 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively (from 4.0% and 3.8% previously) as
infrastructure investment and the external sector continue to drive growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Government To Make Continued Efforts To Improve Business Environment
We expect the Georgian government to continue to undertake policies to improve the business environment by reducing corruption
countries, and further improvements appear likely TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition
We expect tensions between Georgia and Russia to remain frosty over the next 10 years as the Georgian government continues to
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: RAIL RISKS
TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
EM Growth To Accelerate In 2018 While DMs Plateau
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

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