Georgia Country Risk Report Q1 2020
We hold a relatively upbeat outlook for the Georgian economy over the next few years.
Real GDP growth looks set to outperform regional peers, due to strong domestic demand, steady inflows of foreign investment and a buoyant tourism sector.
At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our real GDP growth estimate to 4.9% in 2019, from 4.4% previously. We maintain our 4.7% growth forecast for 2020.
The September 2 resignation of Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze reflects growing pressure on the Georgia's ruling 'Georgian Dream' coalition.
His successor, former interior minister Giorgi Gakharia, will struggle to bolster the flagging popularity of the ruling coalition.
Georgia's current account deficit is among the widest in Europe and will remain a risk for the stability of the economy.
A renewed conflict between Russia and Georgia remains a crucial tail risk, given Georgia's continued attempts at forging closer relations with the EU and the US.
Declining growth in Russia, or even an unexpected downturn, could result in Russian foreign policy becoming more assertive towards Georgia, as has been the case with Ukraine during prior economic crises.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Georgian Economy Set For Steady Growth Over Coming Years
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- 10-Year Forecast
- The Georgia Economy to 2028
- Georgia's Long-Term Growth To Benefit From Continued Reforms And Diversification
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Georgian Dream To Face Further Protests And Poll Struggles
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition
- THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Georgia Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsOperational Risk
- TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
- Economic Openness
- TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
- TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
- TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
- TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
- Utilities Network
- TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
- TABLE: FUEL RISKS
- TABLE: WATER RISKS
- TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
- Global Macro Outlook
- Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: GEORGIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS