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Georgia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Georgia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Georgian real GDP growth will accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on ac-count of a number of large infrastructure investment projects in the pipeline.

Free trade agreements with both the EU and China, as well as Georgia's favourable business environment (the country ranks ninth out of 190 in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index), will support the investment outlook.

Georgia's current account deficit will remain wide over the coming years, but risks to financial stability are mitigated by the large share of financing coming from foreign direct investment (FDI).

Fiscal consolidation and accelerating economic activity will support a gradual improvement in Georgia's macroeconomic profile.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Continue Robust Expansion In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Short-Term Political Risk Score To Remain Poor As Russia Still A Significant Threat
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Pro-Western Path To Continue Despite Mounting Opposition
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO BUSINESS CRIME RISKS
Education
TABLE: GEORGIA & OECD AVERAGE STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: GEORGIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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