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Gambia and Senegal Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Gambia and Senegal Country Risk Report Q4 2018

The increase in the size of Senegal's economy following a rebasing exercise does not alter our broadly optimistic view on real GDP growth and we therefore continue to identify the country as a regional economic outperformer. That said, the decline in the debt load as a proportion of GDP could see the authorities roll back fiscal reforms, which would lead to increased risks to future economic growth.

Political risk will continue to rise in Senegal in the lead up to the February 2019 presidential election, with a range of factors set to stoke anti-government sentiment. While our core view remains that broad stability will prevail and that President Macky Sall will win a second seven-year term at the vote, we highlight growing risks to these expectations.


Brief Methodology
Indices – Brief Methodology
Senegal – Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Senegal
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – Senegal
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Senegal GDP Growth Outlook Unchanged Following Economic Rebasing
TABLE: COMPARISON OF KEY METRICS BEFORE AND AFTER REBASING, % GDP
10-Year Forecast
The Senegalese Economy To 2027
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Senegal Election: Growing Risks To Prospects Of Sall Victory
Long-Term Political Outlook
Broad Stability To Prevail
Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsThe Gambia – Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
The Gambia
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
Risk Index – The Gambia
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Donor Assistance To Fuel Gambian Economic Recovery
10-Year Forecast
The Gambian Economy To 2027
Robust Growth After Jammeh's Departure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Protester Deaths Demonstrate Fragility Of Gambian Political Stability
Long-Term Political Outlook
Challenging Post Jammeh Transition Underway
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SENEGAL – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: THE GAMBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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