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Gambia and Senegal Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Gambia and Senegal Country Risk Report Q1 2019

The increase in the size of Senegal's economy following a rebasing exercise does not alter our broadly optimistic view on real GDP growth and we therefore continue to identify the country as a regional economic outperformer That said, the decline in the debt load as a proportion of GDP could see the authorities roll back fiscal reforms, which would lead to increased risks to future economic growth

Political risk will continue to rise in Senegal in the lead up to the February 2019 presidential election, with a range of factors set to stoke anti-government sentiment While our core view remains that broad stability will prevail and that President Macky Sall will win a second seven-year term at the vote, we highlight growing risks to these expectations


Brief Methodology
Senegal – Executive Summary
Core Views
Senegal – Country Risk Summary
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Investment And Oil Exports Supporting Senegal's Long-Term Growth
TABLE: MAURITANIA-SENEGAL-GUINEA BISSAU BASIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF AFRICAN EXPLORATION
10-Year Forecast
The Senegalese Economy To 2027
Growth To Outpace Previous Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Suppression Of Potential Presidential Candidates Raises Risks Of Unrest In Senegal
Long-Term Political Outlook
Senegal To Remain A Beacon Of Democracy
The Gambia – Executive Summary
Core Views
The Gambia – Country Risk Summary
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Consumption And Donor Assistance Will Support Gambia's Growth
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Senegal & Gambia Country Risk Q1 2019Contents10-Year Forecast
The Gambian Economy To 2027
Robust Growth After Jammeh's Departure
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Gambian Political Stability Will Be Maintained, But Fragile Over The Short Term
Long-Term Political Outlook
New President To Improve Gambia's Domestic Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: SENEGAL – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: THE GAMBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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