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Gabon and Republic of Congo Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Gabon and Republic of Congo Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Core Views

The Republic of Congo will receive a boost to real GDP growth in 2016 due to a surge in crude oil production and stabilisation of the Central African franc against the US dollar. However, a weak outlook for oil prices will weigh on fiscal revenues for the foreseeable future.

President Denis Sassou-Nguesso will press on with planned changes to the country’s constitution that will allow him to run for a third term in the 2016 election. Despite a high degree of popular resistance to this move, he will be successful in securing a victory in 2016.


Executive Summary
- Congo-Brazzaville
Core Views
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Referendum Gives Green Light To Constitutional Change
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso of Congo-Brazzaville will press on with planned changes to the country's constitution that will allow
him to run for a third term in the 2016 election.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Crude Production Offers Hope After Price Collapse
Congo-Brazzaville will receive a boost to real GDP growth in 2016 due to a surge in crude oil production and stabilisation of the Central
African franc thanks to its peg to the euro.
Chapter 1.3: Operational Risk - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Executive Summary - Gabon
Core Views
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Hollow Victory For Bongo In 2016
Factionalism on both sides of the political divide will increase instability and tensions within established elites in the build-up to the 2016
election, scheduled for August.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Peg Source Of Solace For Oil Economy
Gabon's real GDP growth will see a moderate improvement in 2016, as Central African franc consolidation against the US dollar will
improve the terms of trade for import-dependent producers.
Chapter 2.3: Operational Risk - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
Exit The Dragon
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %

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