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Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Gabon and Rep. Congo Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Core Views

Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over thenext two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sectoroffsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices. Both thebudget and current account deficits will see significant improvementsover this period on the back of increasing oil production.

The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo'spresidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, DenisSassou Nguesso, all but certain.

Core Views

The selection of Jean Ping as leader of Gabon's opposition in theforthcoming presidential elections will not result in a victory overthe country's long-standing incumbent government. Although animportant step towards improving the democratic credibility of thevote, significant challenges lie in the way of a win for Ping.

Gabon's economic growth will remain stunted in 2016, followingfurther weakness in the country's oil sector. A stable currency,while beneficial for inflation and private consumption, will weighon local currency government revenues, with capital expendituresuffering as a result.


BMI Index
BMI Risk Index – Congo-Brazzaville
BMI Risk Index – Gabon
BMI Index League Tables
Executive Summary – Congo-Brazzaville
Core Views
Chapter 1.1: Economic Outlook – Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Ride The Coat-Tails Of Oil Boom
Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over the next two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sector
offsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 1.2: 10-Year Forecast – Congo-Brazzaville
The Congo-Brazzaville Economy To 2025
Structural Weaknesses To Continue Amid Oil Boom
Economic growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over our long-term forecast period thanks to rapid production growth in the oil
sector offsetting the impact of the low price of crude in the near term.
Chapter 1.3: Political Outlook – Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Shorter Schedule Signals Another Hurdle For Opposition
The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo's presidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, Denis
Sassou Nguesso, all but certain.
Chapter 1.4: Operational Risk – Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Executive Summary – Gabon
Core Views
Chapter 2.1: Economic Outlook – Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Economic Growth Outlook
No Respite For Oil-Hit Economy
Gabon's economic growth will remain stunted in 2016, following further weakness in the country's oil sector. A stable currency, while
beneficial for inflation and private consumption, will weigh on local currency government revenues, with capital expenditure suffering
as a result.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Chapter 2.2: 10-Year Forecast – Gabon
The Gabonese Economy To 2025
Diversification Drive Will Yield Long-Term Results
The Gabonese government's early recognition of the limitations of an oil-dependent economic model will yield some positive results
over our long-term forecast period, with economic growth to accelerate to 2020 and remain robust thereafter. Efforts at economic
diversification will help the country avoid some of the structural pitfalls of the region's other oil producers.
Chapter 2.3: Political Outlook – Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Painted Cracks Will Not Bring Electoral Victory
The selection of Jean Ping as leader of Gabon's opposition in the forthcoming presidential elections will not result in a victory over the
country's long-standing incumbent government. Although an important step towards improving the democratic credibility of the vote,
significant challenges lie in the way of a win for Ping.
Chapter 2.4: Operational Risk – Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: CONGO-BRAZZAVILLE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: GABON – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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