Gabon Infrastructure Report Q4 2017
Modest expansion in Gabon's construction industry over the first half of our forecast periodbetween 2017 and 2021 will be driven by power and transport projects supported by developing fundingand Chinese investment flows. Growth is expected to tick up from 2022 in line with the improved outlook foroil prices, which will ease fiscal pressure ad enable the government to better support infrastructure activity.
Forecast & Industry Developments
We continue to forecast modest growth of 4.7% in real terms in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018 as Gabon'sconstruction industry continues to recover from the 2014 recession. With oil exports accounting for 60%of government revenue, the collapse in the oil price in H214 and persistently low commodity priceenvironment continue to limit public spending into the sector.
External financing support in the form of loans from international financial institutions and Chineseinvestment will be critical in keeping industry growth in positive territory over the short term asgovernment revenues remain constrained and it limits capital spending in light of its rising debt load andhigh recurrent expenditure. We forecast 4.8% real growth between 2017 and 2021, supported by activityin the transport and power infrastructure sectors.
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