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Gabon & Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report 2015

Gabon & Congo Brazzaville Country Risk Report 2015

Core Views

The debate over a possible change to the national constitution,which would allow President Denis Sassou-Nguesso to run for athird term, has polarised Congo-Brazzaville at the start of 2015 andwill heighten political tensions in the run up to next year’s elections.

The economic outlook for Congo-Brazzaville remains broadly positive,although the slump in oil and iron ore prices will have an impacton short-term macroeconomic fundamentals.

Core Views

Traditionally one of Africa’s most politically stable countries, Gabonis experiencing unusual turbulence and social unrest amid a deterioratingeconomic outlook for the oil-rich nation.

The slump in oil prices will have a significant impact on Gabon’sshort-term economic outlook, with downside risks for the country’sfiscal health and external accounts. This will have stark implicationsfor oil-rich Gabon’s short-term economic stability and the government’sflagship plan for long-term economic transformation.

Executive Summary - Congo-Brazzaville
Core Views
Long Term Views
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Constitutional Reform Proposal Will Raise Tensions
Despite rising opposition to the extension of President Denis Sassou-Nguesso's rule over the Republic of Congo, even among the
ruling coalition, we expect he will press ahead with plans to amend the constitution prior to the July 2016 elections. Our core view is that
political change is most likely to come from within the PCT rather than from a splintered opposition.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Economic Activity
Oil Production Boom Will Shelter Economy From The Worst
Although falling oil prices will weigh on the Republic of Congo's current account balance in particular, we expect a surge in production
will offset the worst of this. Growth will remain among the strongest in Sub-Saharan Africa.
table: Econo mic Acti vit y
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Congo-Brazzaville
The Congo Economy To 2024
Growth Boom, Little Economic Development
An upswing in oil production and the beginning of iron ore exports will boost headline GDP growth in the Republic of the Congo between
2015 and 2018, but economic expansion will subsequently falter. Growth will be limited to a few sectors and progress on addressing
widespread poverty will be slow.
table: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 1.4: Operational Risk - Congo-Brazzaville
SWOT Analysis
Executive Summary - Gabon
Core Views
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Domestic Politics
Bongo Will Win Despite Rising Dissatisfaction
President Ali Bongo will win the 2016 Gabonese elections, but there will be increasing political tension in the run-up to the polls, which
will dampen investor interest towards the country.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Economic Activity
Positive Growth Masks Twin Deficit Danger
The fall in the global price of oil will hit Gabon's economy hard, especially given stagnating production in the country. Although real GDP
growth in Gabon will remain positive, twin deficits and escalating levels of external debt will increasingly weigh on economic stability in
the coming years.
table: Economic Activity
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Gabon
The Gabon Economy To 2024
Growth To Continue As Economy Diversifies
Annual real GDP growth in Gabon will average 5.5% between 2015 and 2024 due to rising consumer spending and high levels of capital
expenditure. President Ali Bongo's efforts to reduce the economy's reliance on oil will be moderately successful.
table: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter 2.4: Operational Risk - Gabon
SWOT Analysis
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Outlook
EMs Still Slowing
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Developed States , Rea l GDP GrowtH, %
Table: Emerging Mar kets , Rea l GDP Growth , %

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