France Retail Report Q1 2016

France Retail Report Q1 2016

BMI View: The French economy will post modest real growth throughout the forecast period, but willunderperform in the broader EU context. Modest domestic consumption and business investment will notsustain strong growth of either employment or household incomes. As a result, retailers operating in thissteady state market will look into consolidation and optimisation, rather than organic growth opportunities.

After remaining flat for three consecutive years, France's real output will begin expanding slowly in 2015.

We forecast a modest 1.3% inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate, a mediocre expansion in the context ofrecovering euro zone. Importantly for retailers, unemployment rate remains high in France hovering at anaverage of 10.7% in 2015. The figure has recorded some improvement this year, however, a moresubstantial breakthrough is unlikely to take place before the end of 2019 (a projection of 9.4%). FrançoisHollande, the French president, has promised not to run for re-election in 2017 if unemployment rate doesnot decline under his administration, however, the effect of current proposals is questionable. Thegovernment offered tax breaks for businesses in exchange for creating jobs, yet this does not solve cyclicaland structural problems in the labour market. Job creation is lagging and highly-qualified universitygraduates remain unemployed basing their consumption on incomes from social welfare. Moreover, highunemployment prevents rise of wages and, as a result, we expect the growth of household incomes to besluggish, at an annual average growth rate of 2.8% in euro terms.

BMI Industry View
Retail SWOT
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (France 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (France 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (France 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (France 2012-2019)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (France 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (France 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (France 2012-2019)
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (France 2012-2019)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (France 2012-2019)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (France 2012-2019)
Table: Labour Market Data (France 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young People (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (France 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (France 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP By Expenditure (France 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Developed States Risk/Reward Index
Table: Developed States Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116
France - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Department Stores
Mass Grocery Retail And Integrated Retailers
Homeware And DIY
Personal Grooming
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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