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France Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

France Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: The overall level of investment in exploration and production in France remains weak and thistrend is unlikely to alter significantly without an end to political opposition to exploration of shale oil andgas resources. Plans to begin production of gas from coal bed methane by 2017 could provide a muchneededboost to domestic output, but uncertainty over the project continues. Though downstream marginshave benefited from cheaper oil prices, the long-term outlook for the refining sector in France, and inEurope more widely, remains largely pessimistic.Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

Political disputes continue to hold back exploration of shale gas and oil, which estimates suggest exist insufficient amounts in France to have a material impact on the weak existing outlook for reserves. Modest,but notable, investment continues toward development of France's coal-bed methane (CBM) deposits, buttechnical and regulatory uncertainty persists, preventing any revision of our forecasts on the back ofactivity for now.

Downstream capacity and production will continue to fall with the 160,000b/d La Mede refinery set to beconverted to a biofuels plant from 2017. Further refinery closures are likely as the European marketcontinues to realign to competitive pressure and falling demand. Refiners will need to further specialiseto remain competitive and to adapt to the changing conditions in the European refined fuels market.

Energy efficiency gains, a stagnant vehicle fleet and low GDP growth underpin our forecast for continueddecline in refined fuels consumption. Demand for key fuels, such as diesel, has failed to recover despitelower prices, signalling a long trend towards lower consumption.

Strong decreases in refining capacity and refining utilisation rates have seen, and will continue to see,falling crude oil net import requirements over the forecast period. France will remain dependent uponimports of diesel, jet fuel and other products to meet domestic demand as structural imbalances persist.The fuels trade faces increased competition from rival producers in the US and elsewhere.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (France 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (France 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (France 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (France 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (France 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (France 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (France 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (France 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (France 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (France 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (France 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (France 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (France 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (France 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (France 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (France 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (France 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Index
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: US Widens Lead
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
France - Risk/Reward Index
France Upstream Index - Overview
France Upstream Index - Rewards
France Upstream Index - Risks
France Downstream Index - Overview
France Downstream Index - Rewards
France Downstream Index - Risks
Market Overview
France Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Main Fiscal & Licensing Terms
Table: France Fiscal, Licensing Regime
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: France Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals & Ports
LNG Terminals
Table: France LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Latest Gas Pipeline Developments
Crude Oil Pipelines
Refined Products Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - France Oil And Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Total
Engie
Royal Dutch Shell
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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