Market Research Logo

France Country Risk Report Q4 2018

France Country Risk Report Q4 2018

While real GDP growth in France will remain above euro-era averages, it will decelerate gradually in 2018 and 2019. Robust domestic demand will buoy growth, compensating for a weaker external backdrop.

The French government will further progress in reducing the country's fiscal deficit, as Macron's railway reform has shown that he does not bow to public protests.

Debt will remain precariously high, but manageable, due to favourable borrowing conditions stemming from the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy.

France's current account deficit will remain broadly stable in the coming years, as currently strong export and import growth begin to weaken.

President Emmanuel Macron will struggle to push through his European reform agenda in 2018 and 2019, amid rising euroscepticism across the continent.

Key Risks

A more drastic fallout in UK demand following the Brexit vote than anticipated would prompt us to lower France's GDP growth forecast for 2018-2019.

US President Donald Trump's trade protectionist tendencies could result in headwinds for French exporters, hurting economic activity considerably.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
French Domestic Demand To Compensate For Weakening External Backdrop
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
French Current Account Deficit To Widen
Outlook On External Position
Key Structural Characteristics
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Dovish Despite End To QE
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
French Budget Deficit To Narrow
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
France Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
EUR: Strength Unlikely Despite Tighter Monetary Policy
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The French Economy To 2027
Weak Growth In The Decade Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
French EU-Reform Plans To Lag Behind Domestic Reform Agenda
Long-Term Political Outlook
Adverse Economic And Social Factors To Perpetuate Political Risks
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EMs Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: FRANCE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report