France Country Risk Report Q4 2018
While real GDP growth in France will remain above euro-era averages, it will decelerate gradually in 2018 and 2019. Robust domestic demand will buoy growth, compensating for a weaker external backdrop.
The French government will further progress in reducing the country's fiscal deficit, as Macron's railway reform has shown that he does not bow to public protests.
Debt will remain precariously high, but manageable, due to favourable borrowing conditions stemming from the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy.
France's current account deficit will remain broadly stable in the coming years, as currently strong export and import growth begin to weaken.
President Emmanuel Macron will struggle to push through his European reform agenda in 2018 and 2019, amid rising euroscepticism across the continent.
A more drastic fallout in UK demand following the Brexit vote than anticipated would prompt us to lower France's GDP growth forecast for 2018-2019.
US President Donald Trump's trade protectionist tendencies could result in headwinds for French exporters, hurting economic activity considerably.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- French Domestic Demand To Compensate For Weakening External Backdrop
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- External Trade And Investment Outlook
- French Current Account Deficit To Widen
- Outlook On External Position
- Key Structural Characteristics
- TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy
- ECB Dovish Despite End To QE
- Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
- French Budget Deficit To Narrow
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
- France Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
- EUR: Strength Unlikely Despite Tighter Monetary Policy
- TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
- 10-Year Forecast
- The French Economy To 2027
- Weak Growth In The Decade Ahead
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- French EU-Reform Plans To Lag Behind Domestic Reform Agenda
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Adverse Economic And Social Factors To Perpetuate Political Risks
- Global Macro Outlook
- Pressure On EMs Grows, As Do Divergences
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: FRANCE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS