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France Country Risk Report 20 2018

France Country Risk Report 20 2018

While French real GDP growth will remain above euro-era averages, it will decelerate gradually in 2018 and 2019. Labour market gains will become increasingly hard to come by and exports are likely to stutter amidst softer eurozone demand.

The French government will make very little, if any, progress narrowing the country's budget deficit in 2018 or 2019. Easy monetary policy, declining support for the government and unwarranted complacency from EU policymakers will reduce the incentive for France to tackle shaky underlying debt dynamics.

France's current account deficit will remain broadly stable in the coming years, as currently strong export and import growth begin to weaken.

President Emmanuel Macron will struggle to push through his domestic and European reform agenda in 2018 and 2019, amidst declining domestic support and rising euroscepticism across the continent.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Modest Growth Slowdown Ahead
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Benign Balance Of Payments Outlook
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Underlying Fiscal Risks Remain
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The French Economy To 2027
Weak Growth In The Decade Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Macron Will Struggle To Fulfill Reform Plan
Long-Term Political Outlook
Without Structural Reforms, Political Risk Will Rise Significantly
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: FRANCE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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