Finland Country Risk Report 20 2018

Finland Country Risk Report 20 2018

Growth is expected to moderate in 2018 after peaking in the previous year, supported by ongoing momentum in exports and investment activity. At the same time, there will be renewed headwinds from pre-election political uncertainty and threats to global trade from increase protectionism.

Recent above-trend growth has helped correct macroeconomic imbalances, nearly eliminating the country's fiscal and current ac-count deficits and putting the economy on a more stable footing going forward.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Upswing To Lose Momentum Gradually
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPOR SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS
Monetary Policy Framework
ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE CATEGORIES, 2015
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Ambitious Reforms To Test Coalition Unity
Long-Term Political Outlook
Economic Reforms Pose Significant Political Challenges
Chapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: FINLAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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