Market Research Logo

Fiji Country Risk Report 2017

Fiji Country Risk Report 2017

Core Views

Given the strength of the ruling party, we believe that FijiFirst is likely to be returned to power during the general elections that will be held in 2018. The country is gearing up for elections, and the expansionary FY2017/18 (August-July) budget is likely to further bolster the ruling party's chances at the election. We believe that strong growth amid continued reconstruction efforts will further improve FijiFirst's chances, but note that the ultimate results are likely to be dependent on the government's ability to continue with its reconstruction programme. We maintain our short-term political risk score at 51.5.

Ongoing efforts by the Fiji government to diversify the economy and develop the infrastructure sector will likely be positive for growth over the coming year and we forecast real GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2018. In addition, the government's expansionary fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy are likely to lend further support.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Outlook To Remain Positive
Ongoing efforts by the Fiji government to diversify the economy and develop the infrastructure sector will likely be positive for growth
over the coming year and we forecast real GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2018. In addition, the government's expansionary fiscal policy and
an accommodative monetary policy are likely to lend further support.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Steady Growth But Risks From Government Interference
The Fijian economy remains at risk of experiencing subdued growth in the long term due to a lack of private sector development, as
the increasing role of the state crowds out private investment, leading to a burgeoning government deficit. This will slow the pace of
structural reforms such as the elimination of price controls and crucial infrastructure upgrades, which are essential for ensuring the longterm
future of the country's economy.
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Ruling Party Remains Frontrunner, But Victory Not Guaranteed
Given the strength of the ruling party, we believe that FijiFirst is likely to be returned to power during the general elections that will
be held in 2018. The country is gearing up for elections, and the expansionary FY2017/18 (August-July) budget is likely to further
bolster the ruling party's chances at the election. We believe that strong growth amid continued reconstruction efforts will further
improve FijiFirst's chances, but note that the ultimate results are likely to be dependent on the government's ability to continue with its
reconstruction programme. We maintain our short-term political risk score at 51.5.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Contents
Long-Term Political Outlook
Elections Mark A Shift Towards Full Democracy
Following its first democratic elections in nearly a decade in 2014, Fiji is on course to see foreign relations improve, while ethnic
minorities enjoy greater representation under the 2013 constitution. There remain challenges surrounding potential ethnic disputes, as
well as the lingering influence of the military on political institutions following the 2006 coup.
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
EM Recovery To Drive Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: FIJI – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report