BMI View: We maintain our view hydropower megaprojects will drive growth in electricity generationand capacity over our 10-year forecast period in Ethiopia, with the government's existing ambitious powerexport agreements and further plans ensuring commitment to power sector expansion remain robust overthe next decade. We also note growing interests in other renewables technologies, with the governmentplanning for five wind farms and geothermal production at various sites.
Key Trends And Latest Developments
Political risk will remain elevated in Ethiopia in the coming quarters. Social unrest has seemingly cooledin recent months, following violent protests throughout 2016. That said, we believe this is more aresponse to the six-month state of emergency, suggesting potential for a swift resurgence. Meanwhile, wealso see scope for future attacks against the country's Grand Ethiopian Resistance Dam (GERD).Tensions will continue between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam, but the Egyptian government is notlikely to act. More likely though, as a major flagship infrastructure project, it will serve as a major targetfor anti-government groups.