BMI View: We maintain our view that the government's ambitious power export plans will ensure thatcommitment to power sector expansion will remain robust over the coming decade, with hydropowermegaprojects driving growth in electricity generation and capacity over our 10-year forecast period. Thiswill result in hydropower contributing over 96% to the total power mix by 2026.
Key Trends And Latest Developments
Political risk will remain elevated in Ethiopia in the coming quarters. Social unrest has seemingly cooledin recent months, following violent protests throughout 2016. That said, we believe this is more aresponse to the six-month state of emergency, suggesting potential for a swift resurgence. Meanwhile, wealso see scope for future attacks against the country's Grand Ethiopian Resistance Dam (GERD).
Tensions will continue between Egypt and Ethiopia over the dam, but the Egyptian government is notlikely to act. More likely though, as a major flagship infrastructure project, it will serve as a major targetfor anti-government groups.