Ethiopia Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We have adjusted our forecasts upwards for 2016 to 18.5% real growth following revisions tothe historical data showing strong activity between 2011 and 2014. Primary drivers of growth up to 2025will include expansion in the non-residential sector, supported by an improved transport infrastructurenetwork, and developments in electricity generation capacity. Investors may be discouraged by China'sdominance of the competitive landscape and the lack of transparency in the tendering process.
Ethiopia's construction sector is forecasted to grow at 13.6% y-o-y in 2016 before moderating over our 10-year forecast. The main drivers of growth will be developments in critical infrastructure and expansion inthe non-residential sector, both encouraging further foreign direct investment. Deterrents to entering themarket will be security risks from neighbouring Somalia and Eritrea and the incidence of fraudulent dealsbetween the public and private sectors.
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