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Ethiopia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Ethiopia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

While our core view on Ethiopia remains positive, the country suffers from a number of structural weaknesses which could derail the country's bright growth outlook.

The peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea signed on July 9 will offer tailwinds to political stability in both countries, after the war had been in a state of frozen conflict for 18 years.

The Ethiopian birr will likely remain relatively stable in the short term owing to a short-term boost in reserves supporting the central bank's crawl-like arrange-ment. In the longer term, however, we expect that the regime will continue to come under pressure due to structural issues meeting dollar demand, meaning that policymakers will allow further depreciation.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic - SWOT Analysis
Political - SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Ethiopian Growth Outlook Positive But Beset By Risks
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Subdued Ethiopian Import Demand Will See Deficit Narrow
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Ethiopian Price Pressures Will Remain Elevated
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES 2016/17
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Ethiopia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
Ethiopian Birr Will Remain Overvalued
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Ethiopian Economy To 2027
Ethiopia Will Remain A Regional Outperformer
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Deal Offers Boost To Stability And Economy
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Social Fragmentation Will Keep Political Landscape Tense
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ETHIOPIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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