Market Research Logo

Ethiopia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Ethiopia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Despite higher inflationary pressures, growth in Ethiopia will remain robust, supported by more favourable weather and significant invest-ment into the economy. Over the longer-term, investment will offer new opportunities in the manufacturing and power sectors.

Ethiopia's current account deficit will narrow in 2018, supported by a more competitive currency, though we note that these tailwinds are unlikely to last. Meanwhile, Ethiopia's external position will be sup-ported by strong foreign direct investment and concessional loans.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Short-Term Inflationary Pressures To Dampen Otherwise Strong Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Devaluation And Higher Production Will Lead To Smaller Deficit
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
No Rate Moves Despite Elevated Inflation
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES 2016/17
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
ETB: No Further Devaluations In The Face Of Inflationary Pressures
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Ethiopian Economy To 2027
Ethiopia Will Remain A Regional Outperformer
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Social Fragmentation Will Keep Political Landscape Tense
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: ETHIOPIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report