Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over themedium term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomescontributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments innew sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period.
In terms of grains, the country's food security is expected to remain relatively stable over the short termeven though corn production declined year-on-year in 2014/15 due to low plantings. However, even withrecent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is likely to remain a net grain importerover the medium term.
Corn production growth in 2018/19: 7% to 7mn tonnes. Domestic demand growth will fuelproduction, although we believe the country will become a net corn importer over the long term.
Coffee consumption growth to 2019: 8.7% to 3.3mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenyaand Uganda.
Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 76% to 730,000 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugarcorporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of theplan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.
2015 real GDP growth: 8.7% (down from 10.3% in 2014; predicted to average 7.9% from 2015 until2019).
Consumer Price Inflation: 7.8% average in 2015 (up from 7.4% in 2014).
Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.Download eBook