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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

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Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over themedium term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomescontributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments innew sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period.

In terms of grains, the country's food security is expected to remain relatively stable over the short termeven though corn production declined year-on-year in 2014/15 due to low plantings. However, even withrecent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is likely to remain a net grain importerover the medium term.

Key Forecasts

Corn production growth in 2018/19: 7% to 7mn tonnes. Domestic demand growth will fuelproduction, although we believe the country will become a net corn importer over the long term.

Coffee consumption growth to 2019: 8.7% to 3.3mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenyaand Uganda.

Sugar production growth to 2018/19: 76% to 730,000 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugarcorporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in area dedicated to sugar production. The aim of theplan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

2015 real GDP growth: 8.7% (down from 10.3% in 2014; predicted to average 7.9% from 2015 until2019).

Consumer Price Inflation: 7.8% average in 2015 (up from 7.4% in 2014).

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2009-2014)
Grains Outlook
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2009-2014)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2009-2014)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2009-2014)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2019)
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2009-2014)
Featured Analysis
Industry Trend Analysis
Table: Select Countries - Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
Commodities Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
Monthly Grains Update
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Bmi Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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