Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the longterm. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing toconsumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugarrefineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms ofgrains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to ElNiƱo. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely toremain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugarcorporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim ofthe plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenyaand Uganda.

2016 real GDP growth: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.5% from 2016 until2020).

2016 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Sugar Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Grains Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2014-2020)
Coffee Outlook
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Key Risks To Outlook
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
Featured Analysis
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%)
Upstream Analysis
Africa GM Outlook
Table: Farm Size By Region
Africa Machinery Outlook
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
Regional Overview
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology

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