Estonia Infrastructure Report 2016
BMI View: A return to positive growth in Estonia's construction and infrastructure industry is forecast for 2016, before holding fairly robust momentum over the next decade.
Hot spots can be found in residential building, although a housing bubble may be on the horizon, while EU transport and energy interconnectivity projects are seeing focused investment across the Baltics.
Financing may be an issue given the small size of the market and the only tentative recovery in Estonia's external demand picture, although private consumption will remain resilient in the short term.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Positive growth will return to the Estonian construction industry in 2016, with a confident 4.7% rebound after three years of recession.
We see the residential and non-residential sector only growing in dominance as a percentage of total construction value over our forecast period, rising from 63.9% in 2015 to 73.7% in 2024.
Despite projects gaining momentum, Estonia's energy infrastructure sector will grow only moderately over the next decade, averaging 1.8% growth annually to 2024, when its value will amount to EUR300mn (USD406mn).
Transport infrastructure will contribute 47% to total infrastructure value in 2016 at EUR210mn (USD215mn), before falling to 45.2% in 2024 and a total of EUR280mn (USD330mn).
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