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Estonia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Estonia Country Risk Report 20 2018

Given the stable domestic political situation and the open business environment, we believe that growth outperformance relative to the rest of the eurozone is highly likely over the coming years. Estonia can continue to transition to a higher value added production and services-based growth model.

Estonia will remain among the most structurally stable countries across emerging markets, in part due to its very strong fiscal position.

Having fully converged to all major multilateral European institutions, the country will continue to benefit from a robust policy anchor and a high degree of institutional capacity over the long run.

The country's often fractious relationship with neighbouring Russia, undermined by domestic divisions between ethnic Estonian and ethnic Russians, presents the one key risk to stability.

Estonia faces a major demographic problem. Declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancies and a continuous and extensive emigra-tion have led to an aging and, shrinking population. In the long run this will create a host of economic, political and social challenges.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Ease, But Investment To Underpin Regional Outperformance
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Rally To Be Limited
TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Estonian Economy To 2027
Trend Growth To Average Lower in 2018 -2027
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Well Shielded From Russian Threat
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Few Risks To Structural Stability
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: ESTONIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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