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Egypt Tourism Report Q2 2016

Egypt Tourism Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Previously one of the most popular regional tourism destinations, particularly amongst sunseeking European holiday-makers, Egypt's tourism industry has suffered serious setbacks in recent months. High profile terrorist attacks on tourism destinations, political instability and the downing of a Russian civilian jet and subsequent suspension of flights have impacted heavily upon tourism arrivals. The Red Sea resort areas in particular have seen a massive fall in occupancy rates and while travel to Cairo is still relatively strong, overall we do expect to see a significant contraction in international tourism arrivals in 2016. Market fundamentals remain solid, however, with a well-developed hotel market and broad range of attractions ensuring that once the security issues are resolved and flights resumed, Egypt will most likely see a return to positive growth.

Key Updates Key Updates & Forecasts Forecasts

Several airlines have extended the ban on flights to Sharm El Sheikh. Thomas Cook has extended its restriction through to 31 October 2016. EasyJet currently plans to re-launch flights from London Stansted to Sharm El Sheikh in May 2016, though flights from other UK airports will remain suspended.

There are also reports that Russia is negotiating with Egypt to resume civilian flights to the country. Although a positive sign, we also note the reports that several major airlines including British Airways and Emirates have threatened to halt airline ticket sales in Egypt due to issues relating to the blockage of revenue.

As a result of these developments and in light of ongoing security issues, we are forecasting a fall in international arrivals of 8.9% in 2016. Solid growth is currently expected over the remainder of the forecast period, largely a result of base effects following the shrinkage of the market, though any further terrorist attack or deterioration in regional security will lead to a downwards revision of forecasts.


BMI Industry View
Table: Key Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2020)
SWOT
Tourism
Industry Forecast
Table: Inbound Tourism (Egypt 2013-2020)
Table: Tourism Receipts (Egypt 2013-2020)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Egypt 2013-2020)
Table: Tourist Departures and Consumption (Egypt 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East & North Africa Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
Table: International Hotel Groups
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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