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East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

East Timor Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Timor-Leste is set to experience declining crude oil and natural gas production over the nextdecade as its two producing fields remain in decline. Additionally, the small domestic market size makes ituneconomical to build a refinery in the country, which will result in rising refined fuels imports over thecoming years.Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

We maintain our exploration outlook this quarter, with limited upside risk to exploration given limitedactivities in the Timor-Leste Exclusive Area (TLEA) and the current stand-off between Australia andTimor-Leste regarding the territorial arrangements in the area.

Timor-Leste's crude oil production will remain on a gradual decline through our forecast period to 2025.A slowdown in exploration in the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA) and territorial dispute overthe highly prospective Greater Sunrise fields weighs on the country's long-term oil production potential.

Timor-Leste's natural gas production is set to fall by 31.5% over the next 10 years, as natural declinesoutpace efforts to sustain production at the existing field. Commercialisation of resources at the GreaterSunrise fields poses a limited upside risk to our forecasts, though development remains in a stalemateowing to major disputes with Australia and several international firms.

We forecast refined products consumption to grow over the next decade on the back of a fast-growingeconomy - rising from 1,610b/d in 2015 to 2,930b/d in 2025.

Crude oil net exports will decline throughout our forecast period, in line with production declines. Weforecast Timor-Leste's refined fuels imports to remain on an uptrend over the next decade to meetgrowing domestic demand for gasoline and diesel from the power and the autos sectors.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Timor-Leste 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Timor-Leste Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Exploration Activities In The JPDA
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Timor-Leste 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Timor-Leste - Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Index
Downstream Index
Market Overview
Timor-Leste Energy Market Overview
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Company Profile
ConocoPhillips
Eni
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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