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East Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2016

East Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2016

East Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2016

BMI View: The Q1 2016 East Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomicdevelopments within the telecommunications markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudanand Sudan. These six markets are characterised by several challenging business dynamics, including lowconsumer spending power, high infrastructure costs, large rural populations with poor access and, somecases, politically volatile environments. Limited competition in several of these markets, along withunfavourable fiscal regimes, creates considerable downside risks to market growth. 3G and 4G subscriberpenetration rates, as well as their share of total mobile subscriber bases, are expected to remain among thelowest in the world for the foreseeable future.Latest Updates & Industry Developments

Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY15 was 9.3%. Burundi recorded the highestmobile subscriber growth rate, which was largely due to the launch of services and strong growth reputedby Vietnam's Viettel. Full year growth for Burundi was estimated at almost 67%. However, it is thoughtthat large numbers of Viettel's customers may not be active. Average mobile penetration among the sixcountries was 46.9% at the end of December 2015. Rwanda had the highest penetration rate at 75.7% andEthiopia the lowest at 26.4%.

3G and 4G customers represented 15.9% of total mobile subscribers at the end of 2015. This figure ispredicted to rise to 23% in 2019.

Average monthly ARPU remained below USD3 in 2015. Only South Sudan recorded ARPU of morethan USD5, while Burundi, Malawi and Rwanda reported sub-USD3.5 ARPUs.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Burundi
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Burundi 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Ethiopia
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ethiopia 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Malawi
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Malawi 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Rwanda
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Rwanda 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
South Sudan
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Sudan 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Sudan
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Sudan 2012-2019)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Sub-saharan Africa Telecoms RRI - Q116
Market Overview
Burundi
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
Ethiopia
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
Malawi
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
Rwanda
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
South Sudan
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
Sudan
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay TV/Convergence
Regulatory Development
Regulatory Overview
Table: East Africa Regulatory Environment
Burundi
Ethiopia
Malawi
Rwanda
South Sudan
Sudan
Company Profile
Zain Sudan
Sudatel
MTN
Table: MTN Indicators, 2013-2014
Airtel Africa
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Burundi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Burundi 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malawi 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malawi 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Malawi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Malawi 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malawi 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Rwanda 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Rwanda 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Rwanda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Rwanda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Rwanda 1990-2025)
Sudan Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Sudan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Sudan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Sudan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Sudan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Sudan 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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