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Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2019

The Dominican Republic will lead the Caribbean in real GDP growth in the coming quarters as an improving labour market drives private consumption and afavourable investment environment attracts foreign capital. While we at Fitch Solutions expect goods and services exports to strengthen in the coming years,we note sizable downside risks to Dominican growth, particularly related to its tourism industry.


Brief Methodology
Indices – Brief Methodology
Dominican Republic – Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Dominican Republic – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Dominican Republic Will Maintain Region-Leading Growth Rate Despite Downside Risks
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Dominican Republic Will Run Moderate Fiscal Deficits In Coming Years
10-Year Forecast
The Dominican Republic Economy To 2028
Tourism And Manufacturing Will Lead Solid Long-Term Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Fernández, Abinader Likely To Face Off In 2020 Dominican Republic Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Business-Friendly Policies And Security Concerns Likely To Persist
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Dominican Republic And Puerto Rico Country Risk Q4 2019ContentsPuerto Rico – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Puerto Rico – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Downward Revision To Puerto Rican Growth Due To Federal Aid Delays
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Revenue Gains Will Improve Puerto Rico's Fiscal Position
10-Year Forecast
The Puerto Rican Economy To 2028
Fiscal Austerity, Demographics To Keep Growth Weak
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Puerto Rico Crib Sheet: Debt Deals Progress Amid Political Crisis
Long-Term Political Outlook
Recession And Political Status The Main Challenges Ahead
Global Macro Outlook
Global Growth Deceleration, But Policy Increasingly Supportive
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
TABLE: PUERTO RICO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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