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Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Real GDP growth will accelerate in the Dominican Republic, driven by the tourism sector and investment. A newly minted diplomatic relationship with China offers upside growth potential through additional investment and foreign assistance.

Lingering public concerns over corruption will lead to additional protests in the Dominican Republic in the coming quarters. However, it is unlikely that the Marcha Verde protest movement turns to violence or calls for an overthrow of the current government.

The Dominican Republic will see its fiscal deficit narrow in the coming quarters as revenue growth picks up amid improved tax collection and stronger real GDP growth. The possible implementation of Pacto Eléctrico in the coming quarters presents an upside risk to containing fiscal spending in the longer term.

Key Risks

Downside Risk: A downturn in the US economy would pose downside risks to our real GDP growth forecast for the Dominican Republic. The country is highly leveraged towards the US with regard to tourist arrivals and demand for exports, and a significant slowdown could dampen headline economic activity.


Brief Methodology
Dominican Republic – Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Dominican Republic – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Accelerate In The Dominican Republic
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Deficit To Narrow In Dominican Republic Despite Lack Of Electricity Reform
10-Year Forecast
The Dominican Republic Economy To 2027
Tourism And Construction To Bolster Long-Term Growth In The Dominican Republic
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Anti-Corruption Protests Will Continue In The Dominican Republic
Long-Term Political Outlook
Economic Improvements To Support Policy Continuity
Dominican Republic And Puerto Rico Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPuerto Rico – Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Puerto Rico – Country Risk Summary
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Puerto Rico's Structural Headwinds To Weigh On Growth In Years Ahead
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
New Plan Paints Bleak Outlook For Puerto Rico
10-Year Forecast
The Puerto Rican Economy To 2027
Fiscal Austerity And Demographics To Keep Growth Weak
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Rocky US Relations A Risk To Recovery
Long-Term Political Outlook
Austerity, Status The Largest Political Challenges Facing Puerto Rico
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
TABLE: PUERTO RICO – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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