Denmark Renewables Report Q2 2016
BMI View: A slowdown in wind power capacity growth, as a result of market saturation and difficultieswith integrating additional intermittent wind power to the power mix, will curb non-hydropower growth inDenmark over the coming decade. A decline in thermal power generation coupled with the need to boostbaseload power generation will boost growth in the biomass segment, which will play an increasinglyimportant role in sustaining non-hydropower renewables growth over our 10-year forecast period.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We have revised our forecast for biomass power for this quarter, as we expect that government aims toexpand cleaner sources of baseload power, in order to curb carbon emissions and balance intermittentwind power, will boost growth in the segment. This dynamic will be reinforced by thermal powergenerators increasingly considering converting their power plants from hydrocarbon feedstock to biomassin order to enter positive margin territory. We now expect the segment to make up 29.8% of total powergeneration by 2025, compared to our former expectation of 23.5%.
The Danish minority government under Lars Lokke Rasmussen appears intent on rolling back thecountry's emission targets, in order to tackle Denmark's widening budget deficit by removing costlyemission policies. As such, Climate Minister Lars Christian Lilleholt announced that plans to cut CO2emissions by 40% compared to 1995 levels will be watered down to 37%. While this entails continuedreduction, and is still much higher than the EU average, the potential for policy slippage will instil somecaution in investors looking to the market.
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