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Denmark Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Denmark Country Risk Report Q2 2015

Core Views

Extraordinary monetary policy measures and improvement in thelabour market will help offset a weaker external demand picture inDenmark. Private consumption will remain the main engine of growth,despite a large household debt burden.

Denmark will experience broad political stability over the comingdecade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emergebetween left and right, and old and young. Meanwhile, oppositionto immigration will increase. The government will continue to facedemands from Greenland for full independence, although this scenariowill not play out in our 10-year forecast period to 2024.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our discount rate forecast for Denmark to 0.00%until 2017, having previously projected 0.25% and 0.50% in 2015and 2016 respectively.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks To Outlook
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Reform Of Welfare State Key Issue Over Coming Decade
Denmark will experience broad political stability over the coming decade, but changes to the welfare state will see divisions emerge
between left and right, and old and young. Meanwhile, opposition to immigration will increase. The government will continue to face
demands from Greenland for full independence, although this scenario will not play out in our 10-year forecast period to 2024.
Table: Politic al Over vie w
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Activity
Negative Interest Rates To Support Private Consumption Recovery
Extraordinary monetary policy measures and improvement in the labour market will help offset a weaker external demand picture in
Denmark. Private consumption will remain the main engine of growth, despite a large household debt burden.
Table: GDP By Expe nditure
Table: Real GDP Growth Forec asts
Chapter 3: Key Sectors
Telecommunications
Table: Telec oms Sect or - Mobi le - Hi storic al Data & Forec asts
Table: Telec oms Sect or - Wire line - Hi storic al Data & Forec asts
Other Key Sectors
Table: Oi l and Gas Sect or Key Indic ators
Table: Pharm a Sect or Key Indic ators
Table: Infr astructure Sect or Key Indic ators
Table: Food and Dri nk Sect or Key Indic ators
Table: Aut os Sect or Key Indic ators
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Weaker EMs To Weigh On Growth
Table: Global Assumpti ons
Table: Developed St ate s, Real GDP GrowtH , %
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONS ENS US REAL GDP GROW TH FORECAS TS, %
Table: Emergi ng Market s, Real GDP Growth, %

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