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Cyprus Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Cyprus Country Risk Report Q4 2018

The pace of Cypriot economic growth peaked in 2017 and will remain well above trend in 2018. Household demand will slow from extremely elevated levels, but the external sector – led by tourism – will continue to help prop up growth, in part by helping to encourage stronger business investment.

Over the longer term, once the economy has caught up to potential, growth will remain weak due to public sector austerity, competitive pressures on wages and disposable income, and high levels of non-performing loans in the banking sector.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Strong, Albeit Slower Growth Ahead For Cyprus
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Dovish Despite End To QE
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Strength Unlikely Despite Tighter Monetary Policy
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Cyprus Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Cyprus Economy To 2027
Enjoying The Fruits Of Structural Reform
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Key Challenges For Cyprus's Anastasiades Administration
Long-Term Political Outlook
Cyprus Problem, Economy The Dominant Issues
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CYPRUS – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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