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Cyprus Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Cyprus Country Risk Report Q2 2019

Key View:

The pace of Cypriot economic growth peaked in 2016 and will remain well-above-trend in 2019. Household demand will slow from extremely elevated pre-crisis levels, but the external sector – led by tourism – will continue to help prop up growth, in part by helping to encourage stronger business investment.

Over the longer term, once the economy has caught up to potential, growth will remain weak due to public sector austerity, competitive pressures on wages and disposable income, and high levels of non-performing loans in the banking sector.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Cypriot Economic Growth To Slow More Gradually
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Sluggish Eurozone Inflation Suggests Slower Pace Of Hikes On The Cards
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Strengthening Lies Ahead In 2019
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Cyprus Country Risk Q2 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Cyprus Economy To 2028
Enjoying The Fruits Of Structural Reform
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Improving Economy To Offset Tight Cypriot Government Austerity
Long-Term Political Outlook
Eurozone Reforms: Large Questions Remain Unanswered
Global Macro Outlook
Volatility Feeding Into Slower Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CYPRUS – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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