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Cyprus Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Cyprus Country Risk Report Q1 2019

The pace of Cypriot economic growth peaked in 2017 and will remain well above trend in 2018 Household demand will slow from extremely elevated levels, but the external sector – led by tourism – will continue to help prop up growth, in part by helping to encourage stronger business investment

Over the longer term, once the economy has caught up to potential, growth will remain weak due to public sector austerity, competitive pressures on wages and disposable income, and high levels of non-performing loans in the banking sector


Executive Summary
Core Views
Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Lack Of Domestic Demand To Weigh On Cyprus Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Has Few Options But To Gradually Tighten
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Gradual Appreciation Amid End Of QE
TABLE: EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Cyprus Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Cyprus Economy To 2027
Enjoying The Fruits Of Structural Reform
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Unlikely Progression With Cyprus Reunification In 2019
Long-Term Political Outlook
Cyprus Problem, Economy The Dominant Issues
Global Macro Outlook
Contagion Risks Limited To EMs For Now
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CYPRUS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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