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Cyprus Country Risk Report 20 2018

Cyprus Country Risk Report 20 2018

Cypriot economic activity will peak in 2017 and 2018, at a well-above-trend pace. Household demand will slow from extremely elevated levels, but the external sector – led by tourism – will continue to help prop up growth, in part by helping to encourage stronger business investment.

Over the longer term, once the economy has caught up to potential, growth will remain weak due to public sector austerity, competitive pressures on wages and disposable income, and high levels of non-performing loans in the banking sector.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Momentum To Continue In 2018
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
ECB Normalisation Finally Nearing
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
EUR: Rally To Be Limited
TABLE: BMI EUROZONE CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Cyprus Economy To 2027
Enjoying The Fruits Of Structural Reform
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Status Quo To Prevail Following Anastasiades Victory
Long-Term Political Outlook
Cyprus Problem, Economy The Dominant Issues
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: CYPRUS – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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