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Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Côte d'Ivoire will continue to see relatively robust economic growth in the coming quarters, driven by the construction, transport and mining sectors. However, weak cocoa prices will add headwinds to the agricultural sector, leading to a modest deceleration in headline growth relative to recent years.

Relations among high-level politicians in Côte d'Ivoire's ruling RHDP coalition are likely to become increasingly fractious in the coming quarters, as the ruling coalition increasingly focusses on finding a successor to current president, Alassane Ouattara ahead of the 2020 elections. Weaker cohesion will likely see policy formation slow in the coming years, and the risk of army mutinies will continue.

Côte d'Ivoire's current account deficit will narrow in 2018 on the back of increasing cocoa prices boosting the value of exports, although demand for capital goods imports will prevent the deficit narrowing significantly. However, we do not expect the deficit will be a significant threat to the country's external position, given robust inward investment.

Côte d'Ivoire's budget deficit will remain relatively wide over the coming quarters due to weak revenue growth and the need to finance large capital spending projects. While this will lead to an increase in borrowing, we expect the public debt burden to remain sustainable overall.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Ivorian Growth To Accelerate From 2019
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Côte D'Ivoire's Current Account Deficit To Narrow On Higher Cocoa Prices
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
BCEAO To Begin Monetary Tightening In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Consolidation In Côte D'Ivoire To Proceed Slowly From 2019
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Côte D’Ivoire Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Ivorian Economy To 2027
A Bright Decade Ahead, But Fragilities To Persist
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics I
Regional Instability Poses Security Risks To Côte D'Ivoire
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Domestic Politics II
Rejection Of Party Merger Threatens Ruling Coalition
Long-Term Political Outlook
Post-Conflict Challenges To Linger
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: CÔTE D'IVOIRE – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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